UConn vs. Northwestern expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament second-round game

Big wins are expected for defending champion UConn in early NCAA Tournament rounds. Entering Sunday’s Round of 32 matchup with No. 9 seed Northwestern, the deep and balanced Huskies are favored by double digits once again. Following a 39-point dismantling of Stetson in the first round, the No. 1 seed Huskies face the challenge of an experienced Wildcats squad that isn’t afraid to compete against giants.

UConn is an all-around juggernaut — the Huskies rank No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency while still maintaining the 11th adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom). All-American point guard Tristen Newton is the engine that makes UConn go at both ends of the floor. Surrounding perimeter weapons include capable scorers like guards Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle and forward Alex Karaban. The menacing presence of 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan looms in the middle. All five UConn starters average double-figures and can take on the role of primary scorer as needed.

Northwestern won’t be made by the seed status or size of UConn. The Wildcats split their season series, with two overtime games, against No. 1 seed Purdue and 7-foot-4 Zach Edey. After another overtime win in the first round against No. 8 seed Florida Atlantic, while slowing down 7-foot-1 Vladislav Goldin, it’s clear Northwestern isn’t intimidated playing elite big men.

Senior point guard Boo Buie is Northwestern’s all-time leading scorer and runs an efficient offense that rates seventh in the nation in both offensive turnover percentage and 3-point percentage. NCAA Tournament hero Ryan Langborg scored 12 of his team-high 27 points in the overtime during the Florida Atlantic win. Langborg is one of two players to score 25 or more points for two separate teams in the NCAA Tournament after also coming up clutch during Princeton’s Sweet 16 run last season.

Slowing down UConn’s offense is paramount for Northwestern to have a chance. The Huskies are No. 6 in the country in 2-point field goal percentage and No. 32 in 3-point percentage. The Wildcats are bottom third in defensive effective field goal percentage (No. 234) and defensive 3-point percentage (No. 272). Against a UConn team that can efficiently score from all over, Northwestern’s undermanned rotation has to counter with a barrage of 3-pointers. To reach the school’s first Sweet 16, Northwestern’s ultimate test is to slow down the best offense in the nation while Clingan is playing his best basketball of the season.

Our model’s prediction, after 1 million simulations

See all of our model’s second-round predictions.

What: East Region, Second Round

Typeoff time: 7:45 pm ET, Sunday

TV: TruTV, streaming on Max

Location: Brooklyn, NY (you can get tickets here)

UConn vs. Northwestern odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks

Players to watch

UConn

Northwestern

Boo Buie, graduate guard, first-team All-Big Ten
Brooks Barnhizer, junior guard, third-team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
Ryan Langborg, senior guard