North Carolina vs. Alabama expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game

Gear up for a blue blood vs. new blood battle. North Carolina men’s basketball is set to take on Alabama as a slight favorite in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. UNC vs. Alabama pits two of the nation’s most potential offenses together with an Elite Eight bid at stake.

The Crimson Tide led the nation in points per game with 90.7, while the Tar Heels’ 81.5 scoring average outpaces all other ACC squads.

Shrugging off the loss to NC State in the ACC tournament final, UNC has put together two strong showings against Wagner and Michigan State. UNC’s offensive exploits were on display again, with four players scoring in double-figures in these two wins. Thus far in the tournament, the Tar Heels are averaging 87.5 points per game on 50.9 percent shooting with 14 total turnovers.

This well-rounded UNC bunch is led by guard RJ Davis and forward Armando Bacot. Davis — a first-team All-American and the 2023-24 ACC Player of the Year — is an elite scorer and shooter, as he averages 21.3 points per game and 41.1 percentage from deep. Bacot is the elder statesman of the squad, playing out his fifth season at UNC as he averages 14.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game.

The Crimson Tide are back in the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years. Bama showed its scoring prowess in the first round of the tournament with 109 points against Charleston. And although the Tide was far off from its season scoring average against Grand Canyon, the consistency of guard Mark Sears remained the same.

The Ohio University transfer is averaging 28 points, eight rebounds, 5.5 assists, two steals, and four made 3-pointers per game in the tournament. And Sears has been the epitome of consistency all season — the second-team All-American leads Alabama with 21.5 points per game on 50.7 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from deep.

The question for Tide coach Nate Oats’ squad is: Who will step up with Sears? The Tide has three other starters scoring in double figures per night — Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Rylan Griffen and Aaron Estrada.

Oats and UNC coach Hubert Davis are guiding teams that have the talent to win it all. That could make for one of the most entertaining games we see throughout the tournament and it has the highest point total in the betting market.

How to watch UNC vs. Alabama

What: West Region, Sweet 16

Typeoff time: 9:39 pm ET Thursday

TV: CBS

Location: Los Angeles

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North Carolina vs. Alabama odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live.

Expert picks

UNC vs. Alabama projected outcome

Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the UNC vs. Alabama point spread and total:

Projected final score: UNC 86, Alabama 84

Projected total points: 170

See Austin Mock’s full Sweet 16 projections.