Good morning, foreign exchange market! Cash closed yesterday at R$5.0589 for sale, as reported by Getmoney. Not even swap auctions contained the dollar’s rise.
In the absence of news, the market will expect North American inflation and, as a result, the pricing of the exchange rate will depend on bets on when the first interest rate cut will be made by the Fed and what the total monetary relief will be. in the USA this year. For now, data points to activity and a stronger than expected job market there.
In fact, gang, it’s just more of the same. June? After June? It won’t be before that, for sure. All the speeches by Fed directors are converging on the same theory, it is still too early to start reducing interest rates, and there is a risk of an inflation rebound if they happen to get it wrong.
Now let’s go to Brazil. In the political sphere, we had a bucket of cold water thrown by Rodrigo Pacheco, president of the Senate, on Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance. He removed the payroll of municipalities with up to 156 thousand inhabitants from MP1.202. He also stated that, to change the understanding about the tax exemption, there is a need for political support, and if there is none, it is necessary to find resources to pay for the tax benefit. Jeez lelê. This fiscal scenario is very worrying. Let’s see how this balance of accounts will be and if it will be.
In today’s economic calendar, we will see the CPI for March and the unemployment rate for February in the Eurozone. Here, the IPC-Fipe, composite and services PMIs for March and industrial production for February. In the US, we will monitor ADP (change in private employment) and composite and services PMIs for March, in addition to a speech by Bowman, a member of the Fomc. And finally, the speech agenda of Powell, president of the Fed. This one is to be followed closely and could affect the exchange market. Although it should be “more of the same”.
Good business to everyone and lots of profit.
