The price of soybeans on the Chicago Stock Exchange is unable to escape a downward channel seen recently, while market agents are faced with a solid supply. In values traded on the stock exchange, lots for delivery in July fell 0.21% this Friday (26/4), quoted at US$ 11.7725 per bushel.
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“In general, Brazilian, American and even Argentine producers are trading very little soy. In Argentina, a slightly greater impetus in sales was expected, given the fact that many producers are in debt and production prospects have improved this harvest”, assesses Miguel Biegai Júnior, risk analyst at Amius.
According to him, there is still a strong movement of funds that have many short positions, that is, betting on the fall in soybean prices in Chicago.
“There is no strength for a rise [nos preços] at that time. The global supply, despite some drop in Brazil, is still good. In the USA the harvest is going well, with soil moisture and rain forecast for the next two weeks”.
For Biegai, if the funds dismantled their short positions, it would be possible to see an immediate increase of up to 40 points on the stock market. But due to the abundant supply scenario, he sees little room for this to happen.
A more aggressive recovery of soybeans on the stock exchange could materialize in the coming months, if there are any weather problems for planting the crop in the USA, adds the analyst.
The feeling of high supply also drove the price of corn. The paper for July fell 0.44%, to US$4.50 a bushel.
Miguel Biegai Júnior highlights that there is currently corn production that exceeds demand needs. This has been the main downward vector for the cereal. Devaluation does not motivate demand for the product, not even in large consumer markets, such as China.
“The Chinese did not realize that they would have a large domestic production and were increasing their stocks. This caused a sharp drop in corn prices in Dalian [bolsa de mercadorias da China]which are currently at their lowest levels in four years”, says Biegai.
Regarding the attack of leafhoppers on Argentine crops, the analyst does not believe that the projected losses could affect the stock market price. “If at the beginning we expected a production of 54 million tons, now it could drop to 49 million, which is still much higher than last year’s harvest,” he says.
According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Argentine corn production reached 25 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest, mainly due to the impact of the dry climate.
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