Today the stock market falls and the dollar rises with reduced risk exposure before the holidays, when there will be important decisions in the USA
On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and a holiday in Brazil, both this Wednesday, the dollar is operating higher in the spot market, following the external gain of the American currency and Treasury yields, while the stock market today operates in the negative.
Thus, around 10:55 am this Tuesday (30), the Ibovespa fell 0.54%, to 126,666.15 points. Simultaneously, the dollar advanced 0.91%, to R$5.1653.
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Dolar today
There may be a technical factor weighing on the exchange rate adjustment, amid the defense of positions by longs (betting on the dollar’s rise) and shorts (betting on its fall) in foreign exchange contracts in the futures market.
Investors also look at the Focus Bulletin, which showed few changes in market estimates for this and next year, and data from the country’s job market.
Focus Bulletin
In Focus, analysts consulted by the BC maintained the estimate for the IPCA for 2024 at 3.73% and that for 2025 at 3.60%. The projection for the Selic rate also did not change compared to last week, remaining at 9.50% this year and 9% in 2025.
However, it was increased from 8.5% to 8.63% in 2026.
Employment in Brazil
The unemployment rate in Brazil was 7.9% in the quarter ended in March, according to data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua) released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The result came close to the bottom of the expectations of analysts interviewed by Broadcast Projections. Estimates ranged from 7.8% to 8.2%, with a median of 8.1%.
In the same period of 2023, the unemployment rate measured by Pnad Contínua was 8.8%.
In the quarter ending in February 2024, the unemployment rate was 7.8%. The worker’s real average income was R$3,123 in the quarter ended in March, an increase of 4.0% compared to the same period of the previous year.
With information from Estadão Content
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