In the Brazilian scenario, corn prices remained stable, with the Gaucho average registering a slight decline to R$51.92 per bag during the week. In the main local markets, prices remained around R$50.00 per bag. In the rest of the country, fluctuations were observed, varying between R$37.00 and R$56.00 per bag. At B3, the closing on Wednesday (27) indicated values below R$60.00 per bag for the main prices, standing between R$59.58 and R$59.70 per bag.
According to market analysis by the International Center for Economic Analysis and Agricultural Market Studies (CEEMA), this unfavorable pattern in corn prices, which has persisted for a few weeks, is partly attributed to low interest from buyers at this time. On the other hand, producers who have the capacity are holding on to the cereal, waiting for better opportunities in the second half of the year, especially in light of what is expected to be a smaller harvest.
Meanwhile, in competing countries, such as Argentina, despite the weather problems, the current corn harvest will still be 59% higher than that recorded in last year’s harvest.
This year’s off-season planting is complete, now depending even more on the climate behavior in the Brazilian Center-South. Concerns about the heat and irregular rainfall in Paraná and the south of Mato Grosso do Sul are present. On the other hand, summer corn, in the Brazilian Center-South, was harvested in 75% of the area at the turn of the week. In Rio Grande do Sul, according to Emater, this harvest reached 75% of the total area, against 68% in the historical average for that date. In Paraná, according to Deral, the harvest reached 91% of the area this week.
Some consultancies are reducing the final area sown with second crop corn, estimating it at 16.3 million hectares. Therefore, under normal weather conditions, production could be 96.4 million tons, representing a drop of 10.9% compared to the previous year, according to Agroconsult. In Paraná, the safrinha was revised downwards, now estimated at 14.2 million tons due to intense heat and irregular rains, according to Deral.
There is a strong expectation that the demand market will react in the second half of the year, including in the export segment, which could result in some improvement in Brazilian corn prices. This is in addition to the results expected from mid-year around the safrinha harvest. Until the fourth week of March 2024, Brazil exported a total of 245,541 tons of corn in the month, resulting in a daily average in the first 16 working days of March with a drop of 73.6% in relation to the daily average of March 2024. last year.
