Author’s note: This article has been edited and updated to reflect the Giants scratching starting pitcher Blake Snell.
I’m concerned about Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea.
He’s lost significant velocity on his fastball, forcing him to nibble around the edges, where he’s already walked 10 batters in 19 innings.
His ground-ball rate has been reduced to a pathetic 28 percent, meaning he’s allowing plenty of hard, fly-ball contact.
Manaea’s ERA is just over four, but his expected ERA is approaching six thanks to his high walk and fly-ball rates.
Since they scratched original starting pitcher Blake Snell, the Giants will be rolling with a bullpen game on Wednesday.
Unfortunately, the Giants’ bullpen hasn’t been performing up to snuff this year.
San Francisco’s 5.51 reliever ERA ranks second-to-last among MLB bullpens.
Even worse, the Giants’ highest-leverage relievers, Camilio Doval and Tyler Rogers, have pitched in back-to-back days. They are already stretched thin, and their weaker depth will be tested heavily in this game.
Meanwhile, these two lineups are red-hot, ranking top-10 in wRC+ over the past two weeks.
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Plus, the wind is projected to blow out toward center field during the game, likely carrying long fly balls and increasing the run environment.
So, I expect a high-scoring game on Wednesday in the Bay between two red-hot lineups, two questionable pitching staffs, and favorable weather conditions.
The play: Mets-Giants Over 8 runs (-105, BetMGM)
