We will soon see a decline in the world population and we must prepare for it, says study

The study of fertility is essential to resolve the geopolitical, environmental, economic and social challenges caused by changes in population age trends and for migration. They impact policies that address resource and care needs of health, education, labor supply, family planning and gender equality.

The problem lies in our planet’s ability to provide the necessary resources to guarantee survival and well-being of the global populationincluding vital aspects such as access to clean water, nutritious food, sustainable energy and waste managementbetween others.

Accurate estimates and future predictions of fertility rates and their impact on population age structures are therefore important. essential to anticipate potential economic and geopolitical consequencesand to inform the development of effective health, environmental and economic policies.

The day has come! World population reaches 8 billion people

After twenty-one centuries of pure and hard population growthespecially in the 19th centuries, where unprecedented population growth was witnessed until then, and the 20th, when the most significant population explosion in human historyand without forgetting the 21st century where we surpassed the threshold of 8,000 millionthe scenario will begin to change.

According to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, published last week in the scientific journal The Lancet, a significant demographic change in the coming yearsthe decline of the world population.

In the present study, researchers explored the global fertility trends in 204 countries between 1950 and 2021with predictions for 2100. Researchers analyzed data from IHME’s Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, which shows now and future regional, national and global trends in fertility and live births.

A region in countercycle

In general, countries need to have a fertility rate of 2.1. This means that the minimum limit for generational renewal is at least 2.1 children per woman.

Now, the study shows that global fertility rates are decliningwith more than half of all countries in 2021 recording rates below renewal level. This trend, observed since 2000, reveals significant variations in the rate of decline, with only a few countries showing a small recovery.

The study predicts that by 2050, more than three quarters of countries will not have high enough fertility rates to sustain population size over time. By 2100, this number will increase to 97% of countrieswhich is unsustainable for population renewal.

70% of the population will need air conditioning to face the heat

This means that, in these locations, populations will decline unless low fertility is compensated by immigration effective or by policies that offer greater birth support.

Between 1950 and 2021, the global fertility rate fell by more than half, from 4.8 to 2.2 children. The global annual number of live births has peaked at 142 million in 2016, falling to 129 million in 2021.

Fertility rates have fallen in every nation over the past 70 years. In 1950, this rate was about five children for each woman. In 2021, increased to 2.2 children per woman. The trend is particularly worrying in South Korea and Serbia, where the rate is less than 1.1 children. In Chad, the fertility rate is the largest in the world, with seven births per woman.

The new study predicts major shifts in the global pattern of live births between developed and developing countries. In 2021, 29% of the world’s babies were born in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the analysis, the estimate is that this number increase to more than half (54%) by 2100.

According to forecasts, the list of nations with fertility rates above renewal will fall from 24% in 2050 to 2.90% in 2100which would result in an overall rate of 1.6 children. It is estimated that Only 26 countries will continue to experience population growth in 2100with the number of newborns exceeding the number of deaths, as is the case in Angola, Zambia and Uganda.

A new planet?

In theory, the decline in world population seems like good news. The problem is that population decline also brings other side effects that must be addressed, namely at an age level and, consequently, economic, health, environmental and geopolitical.

Low fertility levels have the potential to result, over time, in inverted population pyramidswith a number growing number of elderly people is decrease in the working-age population.

It is, therefore, essential to think about potential threats to global economiessince a decreasing population translates, in theory, into a reduced workforce, which affects productivity and economic growth.

There will be unequal damage to the global population caused by climate change

Likewise, health systems must adapt to the aging populationwhich will imply greater demands on long-term care and an increase in disease prevalence age-related.

As far as the environment is concerned, although the decline in the global population results, in theory, in a easier pressure on natural resourcesit is also crucial to consider how the change in population distribution can impact the management of these resources and biodiversity.

In the geopolitical scenario, they must be considered new power dynamicswhich can change significantly with variations in the size and structure of countries’ populations. This could reconfigure alliances, zones of influence and priorities in international politics.

News reference:

GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators (2024). Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet.