Ukrainian drones are equipped with Artificial Intelligence and targeting the Russian energy industry. So far, it’s working

There is a loud buzzing sound as a small silhouette begins to approach in the air. The noise is reminiscent of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, but this episode was recorded closer to Moscow than Kiev.

“They are flying towards us,” a woman is heard saying in Russian, in a video shared on social media and analyzed by CNN. As the object approaches, it becomes clear: it is a Ukrainian drone, flying over Russian territory. “I’m scared,” she says.

Another video, recorded moments later, shows the same drone veering to the left as air raid sirens drown out the propeller noise.

Seconds later, the drone plunges from the sky, crashing into a pipe-covered tower at a Russian oil refinery, exploding on impact.

CNN geolocated the videos at Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery – one of Russia’s largest – more than 500 km away from Ukraine. The March 13 attack, one of several carried out at this facility alone, is part of a concerted effort from Ukraine to target Russian oil refineries with long-range drones.

And the efforts show no signs of slowing down. On Tuesday, a Ukrainian drone hit the Niznekamsk oil refinery – one of Russia’s five largest – in the Tatarstan region, more than 1,100 km from the border. At least 12 people were injured in the attack, which caused a fire at the primary refining unit, according to Russian authorities.

A Ukrainian source with knowledge of the operation told CNN that Tuesday’s attack was “one of the deepest operations deep into Russian territory.”

These audacious Ukrainian attacks are hitting Russia’s huge oil and gas industry, which, despite Western import bans and price caps, remains the biggest source of revenue for Moscow’s war economy.

The attacks were made possible by the use of drones with longer ranges and more advanced capabilities, some of which have even begun to integrate a basic form of artificial intelligence to help them navigate and avoid being jammed, a source close to them told CNN. of Ukraine’s drone program.

“Precision under interference is possible thanks to the use of artificial intelligence. Each plane has a computing terminal with satellite and terrain data,” explained the source close to the drone program. “Flights are determined in advance with our allies and the planes follow the flight plan to allow us to hit targets with meters of precision.”

This precision is only possible thanks to the drone’s sensors.

“They have this thing called ‘artificial vision,’ which is a form of AI. Basically, you take a model, put it on a chip, and train it to identify the geography and target you’re navigating toward,” said Noah Sylvia, research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think tank. “When it’s finally deployed, it’s able to identify where it is.”

“It does not require any communication (with satellites), it is completely autonomous”, added Sylvia.

Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British military officer and expert on drone warfare and artificial intelligence, said the level of “intelligence” is still very low.

“This level of autonomy has not yet been seen in drones, but we are still in the early stages of this technology’s potential,” he told CNN.

CNN contacted the Ukrainian defense secret services and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), but none of them would comment on the use of AI technology.

Defund the Russian War Machine

The use of drones by Ukraine is not something new. The country has trusted them since the start of the large-scale Russian invasion on February 22, 2022, and has invested resources in advancing technology and domestic manufacturing.

In the beginning, Kiev mainly used off-the-shelf equipment, either for surveillance or technology ingeniously adapted on the ground to launch small bombs. But since then, it has been building a full-fledged drone industry, which gives it a technological advantage over Russia’s significantly larger workforce and better-prepared industrial apparatus.

It also explains Kiev’s increasing precision, visible in these attacks on refineries, where Ukrainian forces made a point of targeting a specific area, maximizing the impact of these attacks.

Several experts contacted by CNN said that instead of targeting fuel storage facilities, for example, Ukraine was targeting distillation plants, where crude oil is processed and turned into fuel or other derivatives.

“From what we saw, in part, they are hitting targets that require a lot of Western technology and Russia now has much more difficulty in acquiring this technology,” said Sylvia.

This approach gives Kiev more bang for its buck and does more harm than simply attacking refineries at random. And the markets are realizing this.

“We see this as a change in Ukrainian tactics to try to disable the Russian war machine,” Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at investment bank RBC Capital Markets, said in an interview.

Experts believe these attacks could have a greater impact on the Russian economy than current sanctions.

“If we think about the sanctions that have been applied so far, they have overlooked energy,” explained Croft. “It was energy exports, crude oil, natural gas and refined products that gave Russia the economic basis to continue waging this war.”

Ukraine says 12% of Russian refining capacity is currently out of service, while Reuters puts the figure at 14%. Russia admitted that part of its refining capacity is low and temporarily banned gasoline exports to avoid a rise in domestic fuel prices.

“These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities that we can target with our weapons,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this month after a series of attacks.

“What our drones are capable of doing is a true long-range Ukrainian capability. Now, Ukraine will always have a strike force in the sky.”

Ukrainian determination, American concerns

Ukrainian refinery strikes have driven up global oil prices, with Brent rising almost 13% this year, leaving US politicians worried about their potential economic impact in an important election year.

Although they did not mention energy prices, Washington officials said they are actively discouraging Ukraine from attacking these refineries. “We have long stated that we do not encourage or permit attacks inside Russia,” an official told CNN.

Croft added that American and international sanctions imposed since the start of the war were structured to keep Russian energy on the markets.

“That was the deal with Ukraine: we will give you money, we will give you weapons, but stay away from export facilities, stay away from Russian energy, because we don’t want a massive energy crisis,” Croft explained.

But the impasse in Washington over Ukraine financing and the possibility of a change in the White House next year could give Kiev some room for maneuver.

“If they’re not getting the weapons and money they were promised, what is their incentive to stick to the deal with Washington?” Croft said.

A bigger concern, experts say, is that Ukraine doesn’t stop at refineries. Some of Russia’s largest oil ports, responsible for about two-thirds of its exports of crude oil and petroleum products, according to RBC, are within range of Ukraine’s drones.

“If just one major export facility were hit, I think the impact on markets would be substantial,” Croft said. “Many of these export facilities are adjacent to refineries, and for now it appears to be a deliberate choice of target to go after the refineries.”

Ukrainian authorities have acknowledged US concerns but say attacks will continue.

“It is clear that we have to minimize these budget revenues as much as possible and automatically cut off Mr. Putler’s oxygen,” said Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the SBU, using a combination of Putin’s name and Hitler’s name in Ukraine.

“So we will continue to work, while the gas station country continues to burn,” he added.