Russia is training a new “top secret” weapon for “a possible immobilization of Europe”

In less than a year, more than 40,000 flights have recorded disruptions in the GPS signal during the flight, in the Baltic region, but experts believe the Kremlin may not stop there

It started slowly, but has been intensifying. Since August 2023, thousands of civil aircraft have registered different types of interference with their GPS signals when operating in the region around the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Experts consider that the strategy is not new, but its unprecedented dimension could reveal that Russia is “practicing” a possible immobilization of the European continent.

“In recent months, we have been observing that more and more civil aircraft have been the target of electronic interference, which nullifies their GPS systems and other vital navigation instruments (positioning, navigation and timing services)”, says Bruno Castro, CEO of Portuguese cybersecurity company VisionWare.

Between August 2023 and March 2024, 46,000 flights experienced interference problems in areas such as the Baltic, the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. The “jamming” of electronic signals is not new in the world of electronic warfare. However, experts are surprised by the scale on which these attacks are happening.

According to British intelligence services, the airline RyanAir alone had 2,300 of its flights affected and Wizz-Air recorded 1,300 incidents. But they are far from being the only ones. These attacks have been happening daily, over a very large area of ​​territory. Currently, the number of attacks is around 350 per week.

In some cases, pilots were left completely “in the dark” with the GPS signal disappearing entirely. Although in many cases pilots have resorted to onboard instruments to navigate the plane, capturing the GPS signal can, ultimately, lead to much more serious errors, which can interfere with the aircraft’s own landing.

“These interferences affect wireless communication systems and can mislead pilots into believing that the plane is in a different location than it actually is. In the case of GPS systems, it is much more complicated if it is necessary to land”, explains Bruno Castro.

In January, the European Aviation Safety Agency warned of a “marked increase” in jamming and spoofing attacks, but did not point fingers. However, based on the locations where these planes have recorded interference, Estonian intelligence has confirmed that a top-secret Russian electronic weapon, allegedly based in the exclave of Kaliningrad, has been behind the attacks.

Russia itself admits that it has military electronic warfare units deployed in the region, although it does not take responsibility for the most recent disruptions.

In 2019, the Norwegian Ministry of Defense addressed the issue in a bilateral meeting with Russian officials, however, the Kremlin continues to deny any wrongdoing. In 2020, the Swedish Defense Research Agency warned that Russian navigation systems could attack vulnerable navigation systems. The warnings were apparently ignored.

According to the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, General Martin Herem, these weapons do not only affect commercial aviation GPS systems. These attacks are also affecting the GPS systems of cell phones and military systems. “They [os russos] they are very strong in this”, highlighted the general in an interview with Kyiv Independent.

Proof of this was an attack on a British military plane, on March 13, carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Schapps. The plane’s signal was subject to interference that lasted more than 30 minutes, when the minister’s plane was returning from Poland to the United Kingdom. Downing Street confirmed that the plane’s GPS system was the target of a “jamming” as it approached Kaliningrad, but tried to downplay the threat, ensuring that the aircraft’s safety was not at stake. However, experts guarantee that this may not be the case.

“It should be remembered that this attack, carried out on March 13 of this year, interfered with the plane’s primary GPS system and Internet communications, which were lost for half an hour, and also with the system of measures against a missile attack . As you can see, we are witnessing something very problematic”, recalls Diogo Carapina, deputy coordinator of the VisionWare Threat Intelligence Center, a cyber threat monitoring center.

But Russia has long demonstrated strong capabilities in the field of electronic warfare. On the battlefield in Ukraine, Russia has made the power of these mechanisms felt. Reports from several commanders on the battlefield demonstrate that the Russian armed forces have very disruptive capabilities, capable of “blinding” Ukrainian troops and blocking their communications.

Moscow has never had any problems openly demonstrating its sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities. In 2015, Russian forces caught the United States itself by surprise with the jamming of drones and communications systems in Syria. At the same time, Moscow was already using these weapons very effectively in Ukraine. The American general, then commander of American forces in Europe, described Russian capabilities as capable of “bringing tears to your eyes”.

“This strategy is not new and there are reports of similar maneuvers – the same type of electronic attacks – that have also been allegedly used in Donbass, in eastern Ukraine, since 2015”, recalls Bruno Castro.

But the scenario is now different and Russia has demonstrated its willingness to use this weapon outside the territories where its armed forces are fighting. For RUSI specialist Jack Watling, although Russia has long used “GPS interference as an instrument of persecution”, it is now “projecting it beyond NATO’s borders”.

One of Chatham House’s experts, Keir Giles, says that if Russia manages to affect GPS services not only on planes, but also on land transport, chaos would ensue and Europe would be immobilized.

The attacks of recent months can be seen, on the one hand, as Russia practicing a possible immobilization of Europe and, on the other hand, as a demonstration of its cyber power.

“The attacks in recent months can be seen, on the one hand, as Russia practicing a possible immobilization of Europe (and “blinding” its airspace) and, on the other hand, as a demonstration of its electronic power – with strong cybernetic inclination”, guarantees Diogo Carapinha.