The quotation of dollar is experiencing a volatile morning this Tuesday (26).
American currency on exchange USD/BRL started to rise slightly amid the rise in the interest rate curve after the Copom minutes and in the face of the drop of more than 3% in iron ore in China.
Treasury interest rates are also gaining strength, weighing on the local adjustment of the exchange market.
Dollar exchange rate today
But adjusting the dollar is moderate amid the predominant decline of the American currency abroad for the second day in a row, after recent gains, and a slight decrease in interest rates Treasurieswhich rose yesterday amid statements from leaders of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank) which raised doubts about the interest rate cut cycle expected this year.
O American dollar it recorded an intraday maximum recently, at R$4.9824 (+0.18%), and a minimum, after opening, at R$4.9664 (-0.14%).
Investors also priced downwards at the opening of business the signs in the Copom minutes that it perceives the need to maintain the still contractionary monetary policy in the relevant horizon, which favors the internal interest differential compared to the external, benefiting the attractiveness of the real.
However, the 3.72% drop in iron ore in Dalian, China, this Tuesday helped to limit the dollar’s retreat against the real earlier. Rollovers of futures contracts also favor exchange rate volatility on the eve of the Ptax closing in March, this Thursday, before the Good Friday holiday that will close markets in Brazil, the USA and Europe.
In interest rates, increases predominate in the rate curve amid the reading of the Copom minutes. Investors also look at the IPCA-15 and the Focus bulletin.
Copom Minutes
As they have been signaling recently, the members of the Copom They wrote in the minutes that they are increasingly data dependent, that is, dependent on the most up-to-date current information. In particular, according to the document, to define the Selic terminal rate.
“The Committee assesses that the information brought by updates to the analyzed data sets will be particularly important for defining the rhythm and terminal interest rate”, brought the minutes.
Justifying the removal of the “plural” in “forward guidance”, the minutes state that some members argued that, if prospective uncertainty remains high in the future, a slower pace of monetary easing may be appropriate, for any terminal rate that is desired to be achieved. .
The panel also mentioned the issue of uncertainty in the scenario, a point of great expectation in the market in recent days. In the minutes, members mention that disinflation abroad is more uncertain, due to economic activity in the United States and global financial conditions. In Brazil, he states, there is a benign behavior in food and industrial inflation. However, they mention doubts about the pace of disinflation in services, with resilient economic activity.
O central bank maintained suspense regarding the level of Selic at the end of the current cycle of monetary easing. “The extension of the cycle over time will depend on the evolution of inflationary dynamics, especially the components most sensitive to monetary policy and economic activity, inflation expectations, particularly longer-term ones, inflation projections, the gap of the product and the balance of risks”, brought the document.
Financial market analysts have debated exhaustively about the level of Selic rate at the end of the period and would like some indication of this perspective from the BC. For the board, however, signaling an expected level for interest at the end of the cycle can lead to noise in communication.
IPCA-15
O Broad National Consumer Price Index – 15 (IPCA-15) registered an increase of 0.36% in March, after rising 0.78% in February, reported the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The result was above the median of estimates from financial market analysts collected by Projeções Broadcast, which pointed to an increase of 0.32%.
Forecasts ranged from an increase of 0.21% to an increase of 0.54%. With the result announced today, the IPCA-15 accumulated an increase of 1.46% in the year. The rate in 12 months was 4.14%. Projections ranged from 3.99% to 4.33%, with a median of 4.10%.
Focus Bulletin
Already the Focus Bulletin showed few changes. The forecast for the Selic rate in 2024 remained at 9% and, for 2025, at 8.5%. The expectation for the 2024 IPCA was reduced from 3.79% to 3.75%, and for 2025, from 3.52% to 3.51%. As for the projections for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), there was an increase from 1.80% to 1.85% in 2025 and maintenance of 2% next year.
Dollar variation on the day
At 9:53 am, the dollar in cash there was an increase of 0.12%, to R$ 4.9794. O future dollar for April it pointed to an increase of 0.08%, to R$4.9780. The interest rate on the 2-year T-Note was 4.611% at its highest, compared to 4.629% late yesterday afternoon; the interest rate on the 10-year T-Note rose to 4.260%, compared to 4.251% late yesterday afternoon.
With information from Estadão Conteúdo.
