The appreciation of cocoa on the international market also puts pressure on the prices of chocolate bars and bonbons this year
An XP study shows that the price rise predicted for Easter in 2024 will be less intense than the variation observed in 2023. Inflation for the most consumed items on that date is estimated at 3.63% compared to 10.7% the previous year.
Among typical Easter lunch products, the price of olive oil is 40.7% more expensive and has seen the biggest increase in the last 12 months. The data is based on the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA).
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“Due to a combination of factors, with emphasis on the El Niño climate phenomenon in Europe”, highlights XP in the report on the price of olive oil.
Easter inflation
Consumers will also pay more in 2024 for products such as refined sugar (13.92%), crystal sugar (7.51%), ice cream (10.43%), other alcoholic beverages (11.27%) and beer ( 3.81%).
Cod, one of the traditional Easter lunch items, kept its price practically stable (0.46%) compared to last year, while fish in general rose 2.68%.
And, contrary to the trending items, the study points to significant price drops in products such as soybean oil (-22.73%), meat (-7.95%), margarine (-8.43%) and wine ( -4.38%).
Chocolate prices
Still in the basket of traditional products of the day, the XP survey indicates that consumers of chocolate bars and bonbons are expected to spend up to 3.63% more at Easter this year.
However, the increase is proportionally smaller than that seen between 2023 and 2022 – 10.7%.
It is worth noting that the query does not include the specific Easter egg item in the basket of analyzed products.
“In addition to the increase in demand, which puts pressure on prices on the commemorative date, other factors, such as the price of cocoa, influence the final price of the product”, explains Alexandre Maluf, an economist at XP.
“The increase in prices in products such as chocolate drinks, chocolate bars and bonbons is strongly influenced by the increase in the value of cocoa on the international market, driven by the crop failure in producing countries, mainly in Africa”, continues the economist.
“In the last two years, however, the rise in chocolate prices was even greater due to one of the ingredients: sugar, which was impacted by the crop failure in the United States with global repercussions on the production chain”, adds Maluf.
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