Retail sales grew 2.5% in January compared to December. It is the first significant growth since September 2023. At the time, the increase was 0.8%.
It is also the best evolution between consecutive months since January 2023, when the increase had also been 2.5%. The data is part of the Monthly Trade Survey, released this Thursday (14) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The result for the first month of 2024 helps to offset the 1.4% drop in December 2023. Compared to the same month last year, January shows an increase of 4.1%. Over the last 12 months, the result is positive at 1.8%.
With the new numbers, Brazilian retail is 5.7% above the pre-covid-19 pandemic level of February 2020, but 0.8% below the record level, reached in October 2020.
“Retail trade came from 2 weaker months, in which results were well below what we could have seen. This is a behavior that was observed not only in 2024, but also in other years, when, for example, there was a drop in sales at the end of 2022 and a recovery in January”, explains the research manager, Cristiano Santos.
Black Friday Effect
Five of the eight activities surveyed advanced in January this year. The highlights were fabrics, clothing and footwear (8.5%) and equipment and materials for office, IT and communication (6.1%), which had the main influence on the result.
The IBGE researcher explains that the significant evolution in January is also a statistical effect of sexta-feira Negrawhich brought forward sales to November that would have been held in December.
“Sector-wise, the results came with a lot of growth in sectors that had a big drop at Christmas, after concentrating sales on Black Friday. This happened in fabrics, clothing and footwear, furniture and household appliances; office, IT and communication equipment and materials; and other items for personal and domestic use, which, together, drove retail growth in January.”
Sales of fabrics, clothing and footwear fell 6.9% in the last month of 2023. In the case of furniture and household appliances, the drop was even greater, 7.4%.
January’s numbers are compared to a lower base in December, not to mention that January is also a traditional month for inventory burns, which stimulate sales.
Another sector that saw an increase in sales in January was hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, drinks and tobacco, which grew 0.9%. The behavior of this retail segment is important, as it is the one with the greatest weight in the survey, 55.5%. January was the third consecutive month in the positive field, which left the sector 9.9% above the pre-pandemic level.
Negative field
Three activities were negative in January: books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (3.6%); pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (1.1%), third with the highest weight in the research; and fuels and lubricants (0.2%).
The IBGE identified that retail sales in January increased in 24 of the 27 federation units. In decline, only Santa Catarina (1%), Minas Gerais (0.1%) and Maranhão (0.1%).
