Dollar closes higher and returns to above R$5, following economic data from the USA and Brazil; Ibovespa rises | Economy

The dollar closed higher this Thursday (28) and once again surpassed R$5, as investors reflected on the release of economic data in Brazil and the United States.

Here, the focus is on the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The Central Bank’s Quarterly Inflation Report was also on the radar. (see below)

In the United States, the country revised the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last quarter of last year, from 3.2% to 3.4%.

Ibovespa, the main stock index on the Brazilian stock exchange, B3, ended on a high.

See below for a summary of the markets.

At the end of the session, the dollar advanced 0.74%, quoted at R$5.0153. At its maximum, it reached R$5.0178. See more quotes.

It is worth remembering that this Thursday’s session was also marked by the formation of the end-of-month Ptax rate.

Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the Central Bank that serves as a reference for the settlement of futures contracts. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it to levels that are more convenient for their positions, whether they are bought or sold in dollars.

As a result, he accumulated highs of:

• 0.34% in the week;
• 0.86% in the month;
• 3.35% in the year.

The previous day, the North American currency fell 0.07%, quoted at R$4.9787.

The Ibovespa ended up 0.33%, at 128,106 points.

As a result, he accumulated:

• increase of 0.85% in the week;
• drop of 0.71% in the month;
• decline of 4.53% in the year.

The day before, the index rose 0.65%, to 127,691 points.

Understand what makes the dollar rise or fall

In a busy schedule before the holiday, investors spent the day reviewing a series of national and international indicators.

“The moderate revision mainly reflects the slightly greater than expected dynamism of the economy at the beginning of the year, as suggested by available indicators”, informed the BC.

The BC also maintained its estimate for official inflation, measured by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), at 3.5% for 2024. This year’s inflation target is 3%, and will be considered met if it fluctuates between 1.5% and 4.5%.

According to the institution, the estimated probability of inflation exceeding the upper limit of this year’s inflation target tolerance range, which is 4.5%, is 19%.

Abroad, attention continued to focus on US inflation data, which will be released at the end of this week. The expectation is for a 0.3% increase in the PCE index in February over the previous month and 2.8% on an annual basis.

Analysts understand that any higher number will be considered a setback for bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the North American central bank) in June.

The day before, for example, Fed director Christopher Waller stated that recent disappointing data on inflation confirm that the US Central Bank should postpone cutting short-term interest rates.

Among the indicators of the day, GDP expansion in the fourth quarter of last year was revised to an annualized rate of 3.4%, compared to the 3.2% previously reported. Initial jobless claims fell to 210,000 in the week ending March 23. Consumer confidence data in the US is also under the spotlight.

*With information from Reuters